Oscars 2013: Best Actor/Actress/Director

Given the quantity of uncertain outcomes, this year's Academy Awards guarantee excitement, and there's nothing better than an Oscars ceremony filled with surprises. Furthermore, the selection of films nominated this year are of a rare vintage.

Today we turn our attention to the remaining major awards, with only one looking possible to confidently predict. These three categories are as remarkable for their omissions as they are their inclusions: the Best Actress category features both the oldest and youngest ever acting nominees and discussion of the Directing category has thus far focussed on who's not there.

• ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Let's start with the missing persons. Philip Seymour Hoffman really deserved a Best Actor, rather than Supporting Actor, nod, Jean-Louis Trintignant was extremely unlucky not to have picked up a nomination for Amour, and yet my most missed is Matthew McConaughey (pictured right) for Killer Joe. It's an imperfect, gloriously trashy film that was never going to attract establishment attention but McConaughey made for a barnstorming bad-ass.

So who's up? Bradley Cooper was better than he's ever been in Silver Linings Playbook but can't yet compete with the big boys. Denzel Washington's performance in Flight was stellar too but the weak material didn't allow him to soar. Some loved Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables but I found his performance torturously effortful. For me Joaquin Phoenix is the pick of this year's nominations with his rough, restless display in The Master. However, debating this category is one of the few moot points this year, as Daniel Day-Lewis will certainly triumph for Lincoln. His is a mesmeric, appropriately grandiose performance too.

Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

Who should win: Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

Who should have been nominated: Matthew McConaughey (pictured above right) - Killer Joe

• ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Marion Cotillard is arguably the only glaring oversight here - in Rust and Bone she was raw and fearless as she imagined herself disabled. In this year's mix instead is the versatile Jessica Chastain (pictured left) for Zero Dark Thirty who has a magnificent arc, from uncertain to bullish. She faces stiff competition from the 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva, still capable of breaking hearts in the devastating Amour. The 22-year-old, now twice nominated Jennifer Lawrence has a chance here too for Silver Linings Playbook, but nab it or not her time will come.

It's cheering to see young Quvenzhané Wallis (now nine, apparently just five when she auditioned) recognised for her entirely fresh and natural turn in the excellent Beasts of the Southern Wild, though I'm not sure it quite matches the complexity of the adult performances. Completing the extremely competitive line-up is the reliably ballsy Naomi Watts. The shoot of The Impossible must have been physically as well as emotionally gruelling; she's an outsider this time but a worthy inclusion nevertheless.

Who will win: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

Who should win: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour / Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty: don't make me choose!

Who should have been nominated: Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone

• DIRECTING

Although the Oscars have made significant strides this year in the quality and diversity of those recognised, the directing omissions are a bit baffling. Many will bemoan the absence of Ben Affleck for his terrific but not quite masterful direction of (Best Picture frontrunner) Argo. But, for me, the real scandals are elsewhere. Where for example is Kathryn Bigelow for her exemplary work on Zero Dark Thirty, easily up there with her history making helms(wo)manship on The Hurt Locker? And Paul Thomas Anderson's snub is the second significant slight for The Master, as it also (inexplicably) misses out on a Best Picture nomination.

These two have made way for Ang Lee for Life of Pi (not a favourite of mine) and David O Russell's hardly groundbreaking work on Silver Linings Playbook - a lovely film and important to see a comedy in Best Picture but hardly the director's finest hour. Yet Michael Haneke is nominated for Amour, a wonderful inclusion and it's great too to see Benh Zeitlin for his dynamic debut Beasts of the Southern Wild. Steven Spielberg for the elegant, intelligent Lincoln (pictured above right) is a respectable choice but personally I'd have rather seen Quentin Tarantino in there for transgressing (and giving us the most entertaining picture of the past year) with Django Unchained than Spielberg recognised for holding back.

Who will win: Stephen Spielberg - Lincoln

Who should win: Michael Haneke - Amour

Who should have been nominated: Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty, Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master.

• More about the Academy Awards on theartsdesk